What the Ratio Measures
The ratio of total stock market value to gross domestic product is widely called the Buffett indicator. Warren Buffett described it in a December 2001 Fortune article as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” It compares what the market is worth with what the economy produces in a year.
The numerator in most published versions was the Wilshire 5000 Full Cap index, which FRED stopped carrying in June 2024. Many trackers now use the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Financial Accounts figure for the market value of corporate equities instead. This page uses the Clay Total Market Index, which is recalculated after every trading day, so the ratio moves daily rather than quarterly.
Two things make this version run higher than a domestic-only measure. The index counts every company listed on a US exchange, including companies incorporated and headquartered abroad, and it uses company-level market capitalization with no float adjustment. The second figure above, for US domestic filers only, removes the first of those. This page reports the ratio; it does not say whether the market is cheap or expensive.
Daily History
Change since the July 10, 2026 close: −7.9 percentage points, from 312.6% to 304.8%.
Each close is divided by the most recent quarterly GDP that had been published by that date, taken as the quarter’s figure from 30 days after the quarter ends, close to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate. Later revisions to GDP are not applied backwards. The market-cap series starts at the July 10, 2026 close and has two methodology breaks described on the total market cap page and in the methodology correction notes.
Last 10 closes
| Close | Market cap | GDP used | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 20, 2026 | $99.25T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 304.8% |
| October 19, 2026 | $99.45T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 305.4% |
| October 16, 2026 | $99.06T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 304.2% |
| October 15, 2026 | $100.28T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 308.0% |
| October 14, 2026 | $99.04T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 304.1% |
| October 13, 2026 | $100.41T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 308.3% |
| October 12, 2026 | $100.50T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 308.6% |
| October 9, 2026 | $100.69T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 309.2% |
| October 8, 2026 | $100.17T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 307.6% |
| October 7, 2026 | $100.71T | $32.56T (Q2 2026) | 309.3% |
GDP Figures Used
| Quarter | GDP, annual rate | Used for closes from |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $31.91T | April 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | $32.56T | July 30, 2026 |
Source: clay-total-market-index-latest.json, generated 2026-10-21T00:30:13.820Z. GDP: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved 2026-10-18. Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Method
- Numerator: total market capitalization of the Clay Total Market Index, every company listed on NYSE, Nasdaq or NYSE American, counted once at company-level market capitalization, not float-adjusted. See the methodology.
- Domestic-only ratio: the same, restricted to companies whose latest SEC annual report is a Form 10-K. Shown when the SEC filer classification covers at least 98% of market cap; the split is explained on the total market cap page.
- Denominator: nominal US gross domestic product, quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate, Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (series GDP). The latest quarter is an estimate and is revised in the BEA’s second and third releases and in annual updates.
- Timing: a quarter’s GDP applies to closes from about a month after the quarter ends, when the advance estimate is published. Earlier closes use the previous quarter.
- Dates: each archive file is dated the day after the close it holds. Dates on this page are close dates.